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The space junk CZ-4B R/B is forecast to reentry Friday, 29 Apr 2022 at 23:08 UTC +/- 8 hours
CZ-4B R/B

Forecast for CZ-4B R/B Reentry


Update Fri 20-May-2022 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk CZ-4B R/B (49964U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Friday, 29 Apr 2022 at 23:08 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-30
202149964U97º14912987Reentered!
Lat=48.4   Lon=291.6
2022-050C
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-13
202252511U41º28416689Reentered!
Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-18
202252428U97º19012788Reentered!
Lat=-18   Lon=345.4
GASPACS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-26
199851439U52º28927990Forecast
CZ-7 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-27
202252512U41º28319589Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-27
202252317U53º25824189Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-30
202252316U53º26824990Forecast
2022-050B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-31
202252510U41º31425690Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-31
202252314U53º27525290Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-2
202252315U53º27825590Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-5
202252387U53º28126990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-6
202252386U53º28627290Forecast
RSP-01
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-7
199847925U52º30429791Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-11
202252384U53º29427690Forecast
PHOENIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-11
199845258U52º29829090Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-12
202252385U53º29427590Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-12
199844306U52º29028490Forecast
STARLINK-3711
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-13
202252131U53º35234992Forecast
DESCENT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-13
199846927U52º30730291Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-15
202252507U53º29828290Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-15
202252506U53º29828590Forecast
STARLINK-2023
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-15
202147605U53º31030491Forecast
STARLINK-2306
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-15
202147988U53º30930591Forecast
STARLINK-1809
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-16
202046708U53º31029991Forecast
NEUTRON-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-18
199846923U52º31531091Forecast
SPOC
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-18
199846921U52º31831291Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-18
202252505U53º30428590Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-21
202252504U53º30628890Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-22
202252596U53º30929591Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-23
202252597U53º30629591Forecast
GUARANISAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-24
199847931U52º33032391Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-24
202252595U53º30930091Forecast
MAYA-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-24
199847929U52º33232591Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-28
202252589U53º31229991Forecast
STARLINK-1214
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-28
202045224U53º30530491Forecast
TSURU
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-1
199847927U52º33432791Forecast
STARLINK-3871
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-3
202252496U53º30529090Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-3
199844303U52º31630991Forecast
STARLINK-3307
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-5
202150164U53º32731391Forecast
RED-EYE 1 (PINOT)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-7
199844364U52º32531691Forecast
STARLINK-2239
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-8
202148017U53º34133391Forecast
STARLINK-1885
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-10
202047168U53º29828990Forecast
SIMPL
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-16
199842983U52º30329791Forecast
BREEZE-KM R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-16
201339454U88º30330091Forecast
STARLINK-1514
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-17
202046046U53º34833891Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-23
201843600U97º31530791Forecast
STARLINK-3537
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-15
202252088U53º33833291Forecast
STARLINK-3853
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-15
202252359U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3806
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-16
202252378U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3812
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-18
202252346U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3820
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-18
202252364U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3851
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-18
202252344U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3838
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-24
202252352U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2080
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-26
202147365U53º34333091Forecast
ISS DEB (SEDA-AP)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-28
199843870U52º33432791Forecast
STARLINK-3857
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-1
202252494U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3876
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-11
202252354U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3913
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-25
202252485U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3827
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-28
202252370U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3856
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-29
202252459U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3902
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-1
202252487U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3803
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-3
202252381U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3828
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-4
202252469U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3885
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-5
202252463U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3796
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-8
202252372U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3882
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-9
202252475U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3887
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-13
202252484U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3873
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-13
202252467U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3864
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-15
202252468U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3865
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-19
202252460U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3840
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-19
202252466U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3904
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-21
202252464U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3872
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-22
202252453U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3881
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-25
202252472U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3793
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-27
202252380U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-1501
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-27
202045763U53º34333191Forecast
STARLINK-3863
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-28
202252465U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3859
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-30
202252470U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3862
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-6
202252471U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3879
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-11
202252473U53º35134892Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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