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The space junk SPOC is forecast to reentry Friday, 24 Jun 2022 at 21:59 UTC +/- 8 hours
SPOC

Forecast for SPOC Reentry


Update Thu 18-Aug-2022 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk SPOC (46921U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Friday, 24 Jun 2022 at 21:59 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-18
202252428U97º19012788Reentered!
Forecast
YZ-1S R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-21
202252719U86º3339289Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-7 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-25
202252512U41º15713287Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-11 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-29
202252393U97º17511387Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-5
202252796U52º12712287Reentered!
Forecast
PHOENIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-13
199845258U52º15614487Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-13
202252385U53º17316588Reentered!
Forecast
2022-060F
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-13
202252802U41º32119590Reentered!
Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-14
199844306U52º16015088Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-3307
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-16
202150164U53º22121589Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-17
202252507U53º20920289Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-17
202252506U53º21620989Reentered!
Forecast
GT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-19
199851510U52º27324990Reentered!
Forecast
DESCENT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-20
199846927U52º25523889Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-2F R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-21
202252798U41º27318389Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-21
202252505U53º24023889Reentered!
Forecast
SPOC
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-24
199846921U52º27425990Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-25
202252597U53º25524890Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-25
202252654U53º26324490Reentered!
Forecast
NEUTRON-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-27
199846923U52º27225790Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-27
202252653U53º26924890Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-27
202252596U53º26025090Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-27
202252504U53º25825290Reentered!
Forecast
DAILI
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-27
199851443U52º30528890Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-27
202252595U53º26225590Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-1
202252712U53º27325990Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-1
202252589U53º27326290Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-2
202252652U53º28025690Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-3
202252711U53º27426390Reentered!
Forecast
GUARANISAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-4
199847931U52º29728490Reentered!
Forecast
TSURU
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-5
199847927U52º29728490Reentered!
Forecast
MAYA-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-6
199847929U52º29928690Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-7
202252651U53º28526190Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-8
202252710U53º28526890Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-12
202252709U53º28827190Reentered!
Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-14
199844303U52º28928090Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-3875
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-23
202252483U53º35134992Reentered!
Forecast
RED-EYE 1 (PINOT)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-24
199844364U52º30129390Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-2239
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-26
202148017U53º31631291Reentered!
Lat=50.6   Lon=312.2
PROPCUBE 2 (FAUNA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-26
201743052U52º32932491Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-2080
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-28
202147365U53º32330391Reentered!
Lat=-41.7   Lon=84.7
SIMPL
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-28
199842983U52º28427690Reentered!
Forecast
MAYA-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-29
199849273U52º33732891Reentered!
Forecast
BREEZE-KM R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-29
201339454U88º28728190Reentered!
Lat=-65.6   Lon=187.7
AEROCUBE 7B (OCSD B)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-29
201743042U52º33332791Reentered!
Forecast
MAYA-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-31
199849274U52º33933091Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1514
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-1
202046046U53º32732291Reentered!
Lat=14.3   Lon=103.4
AEROCUBE 7C (OCSD C)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-6
201743043U52º34033491Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-3860
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-21
202252477U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-1501
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-23
202045763U53º32731891Forecast
STARLINK-1858
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-27
202047145U53º34433491Forecast
BD-28
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-31
199848867U52º34934792Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-2
201843600U97º31630491Forecast
STARLINK-2023
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-2
202147605U53º31030591Forecast
STARLINK-3832
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-11
202252646U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3984
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-11
202252621U53º35134992Forecast
SORTIE
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-11
199845264U52º33933491Forecast
STARLINK-3961
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-12
202252637U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3996
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-12
202252617U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-4009
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-12
202252624U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3983
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-12
202252618U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3978
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-14
202252635U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3994
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-14
202252633U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3794
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-14
202252631U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3995
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-14
202252632U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3982
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-14
202252614U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3991
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-14
202252641U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-4015
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-14
202252616U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3989
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-15
202252630U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3986
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-15
202252623U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3963
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-16
202252643U53º35134992Forecast
STPSAT-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-21
199845043U52º34634191Forecast
STARLINK-1367
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-24
202045539U53º33832191Forecast
ISS DEB (SEDA-AP)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-25
199843870U52º32231591Forecast
STARLINK-4032
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-7
202252688U53º35234892Forecast
STARLINK-3925
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-12
202252498U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3857
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-12
202252494U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3999
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-13
202252704U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3864
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-15
202252468U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-4005
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-16
202252686U53º35234892Forecast
STARLINK-3916
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-16
202252492U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3892
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-16
202252488U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3879
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-17
202252473U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-4041
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-18
202252695U53º35234892Forecast
STARLINK-3835
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-18
202252476U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3882
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-19
202252475U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3914
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-19
202252490U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3887
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-19
202252484U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-4028
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-19
202252677U53º35234892Forecast
STARLINK-3865
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-19
202252460U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3908
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-20
202252491U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3885
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-20
202252463U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3866
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-20
202252500U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3883
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-21
202252493U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3862
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-21
202252471U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3902
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-23
202252487U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3878
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-23
202252479U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3303
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-1
202150162U53º34233891Forecast
STARLINK-3537
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-8
202252088U53º32632391Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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